Explainable Machine Learning for Real-Time Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemia Prediction and Personalized Control Recommendations

BACKGROUND: The occurrences of acute complications arising from hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia peak as young adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) take control of their own care. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide real-time glucose readings enabling users to manage their control proactively. Machine learning algorithms can use CGM data to make ahead-of-time risk predictions and provide insight into an individual’s longer term control. METHODS: We introduce explainable machine learning to make predictions of hypoglycemia (270 mg/dL) up to 60 minutes ahead of time. We train our models using CGM data from 153 people living with T1D in the CITY (CGM Intervention in Teens and Young Adults With Type 1 Diabetes)survey totaling more than 28 000 days of usage, which we summarize into (short-term, medium-term, and long-term) glucose control features along with demographic information. We use machine learning explanations (SHAP [SHapley Additive exPlanations]) to identify which features have been most important in predicting risk per user. RESULTS: Machine learning models (XGBoost) show excellent performance at predicting hypoglycemia (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC]: 0.998, average precision: 0.953) and hyperglycemia (AUROC: 0.989, average precision: 0.931) in comparison with a baseline heuristic and logistic regression model. CONCLUSIONS: Maximizing model performance for glucose risk prediction and management is crucial to reduce the burden of alarm fatigue on CGM users. Machine learning enables more precise and timely predictions in comparison with baseline models. SHAP helps identify what about a CGM user’s glucose control has led to predictions of risk which can be used to reduce their long-term risk of complications

S06-1 Putting young people at the heart of physical activity research design: The Walking In ScHools (WISH) Study

BACKGROUND: Young people have the right to be informed and consulted about decisions affecting their lives. Youth Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) should be encouraged to ensure research is carried out ‘with' or ‘by' young people rather than ‘to', ‘about' or ‘for' them. PPI can ensure research is relevant, results are accessible and recruitment rates are improved. Young people have had limited involvement in the design, implementation and dissemination of public health research and there have been calls for a greater focus on youth PPI in research. METHODS: Following the WISH feasibility study that consulted young people pre and post-intervention, a Youth Advisory Group (YAG) was set up within the main trial. The WISH study is a clustered randomised controlled trial in which a peer-led, school-based, brisk walking intervention is compared to usual physical activity in adolescent females. The YAG was introduced to inform intervention delivery and provide researchers with an understanding of what would encourage/discourage participation. Schools were asked to invite pupils aged 12-14 years (participants) and 15-18 years (walk leaders). Participative methods were used to develop and review study documentation. The YAG completed a short questionnaire and recruitment rates were monitored. RESULTS: Fourteen pupils from 3 schools attended the 2019 YAG meeting. The YAG agreed the meeting was a good way of getting young people involved in research (93%) and attendees enjoyed the meeting (100%). As a result, changes were made to study documentation, incentives were purchased and recruitment materials developed. Participant recruitment was higher in schools who participated in the YAG (54%) compared to those who did not (47%). In 2021 the second YAG occurred and 1 teacher, 12 participants and 10 walk leaders from 2 schools provided feedback on the trials COVID-19 contingency plan. The girls felt their feedback was valued (100%) and it was important young people had the chance to contribute to research studies (100%). CONCLUSIONS: The views of young people have been central to the development of the WISH Study and although youth PPI is not without challenges, there are many benefits for researchers, the study and the young people involved

Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibition with simvastatin in acute lung injury to reduce pulmonary dysfunction (HARP-2) trial : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Acute lung injury (ALI) is a common devastating clinical syndrome characterized by life-threatening respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation and multiple organ failure. There are in vitro, animal studies and pre-clinical data suggesting that statins may be beneficial in ALI. The Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibition with simvastatin in Acute lung injury to Reduce Pulmonary dysfunction (HARP-2) trial is a multicenter, prospective, randomized, allocation concealed, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial which aims to test the hypothesis that treatment with simvastatin will improve clinical outcomes in patients with ALI

Physically fit or physically literate? Children with special educational needs understanding of physical education

The role of physical literacy within physical education (PE) has become a widely debated topic in recent years. Its role in educating children about physicality through embodiment, skill acquisition and reading the environment is argued to be of great benefit to children. However, whether children understand the role of PE in the development of these competencies is not clear, and this is even truer for children who have special educational needs (SEN). Drawing on qualitative phenomenological data from 30 children in key stages 2 and three (7 to 14 years of age) who have SEN, this paper explores notions of physical fitness and physical literacy as understood by children in PE lessons. It aims to gain insight into the ways that children understand the purpose of PE, and places these perceptions within a physical literacy framework, using the National Curriculum for PE (NCPE) as a foundation. Findings demonstrate that children with SEN perceive PE as a means for improving physical fitness, whereas concepts surrounding physical literacy appear to be lost. The paper concludes by making recommendations for factoring physical literacy components more forcibly into the PE curriculum, and through initial teacher training and continued professional development

On the Morphology, Structure and Field Emission Properties of Silver-Tetracyanoquinodimethane Nanostructures

Silver-tetracyanoquinodimethane(Ag-TCNQ) nanostructured arrays with different morphologies were grown by an organic vapor-transport reaction under different conditions. The field emission properties of nanostructured arrays were studied systematically. Their morphology and crystal structure were characterized by SEM and XRD, respectively. It was found that the field emission properties were strongly dependent on the reaction temperature and the initial Ag film thickness. The lowest turn-on field with 10-nm-thick silver film is about 2.0 V/μm, comparable to that of carbon nanotubes. The film crystal structure and the morphology are contributed to the final emission performance

Simvastatin for patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: long term outcomes and cost-effectiveness from a randomised controlled trial

Background: Simvastatin therapy for patients with ARDS has been shown to be safe and associated with minimal adverse effects, but it does not improve clinical outcomes. The aim of this research was to report on mortality and cost-effectiveness of simvastatin in patients with ARDS at 12 months. Methods: A cost-utility analysis alongside a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial carried out in the UK and Ireland. Five hundred and forty intubated and mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive once-daily simvastatin (at a dose of 80 mg) or identical placebo tablets enterally for up to 28 days. Results: Mortality was lower in the simvastatin group (31.8%; 95% CI 26.1, 37.5) compared to the placebo group (37.3%; 95% CI 31.6, 43.0) at 12 months although this was not significant. Simvastatin was associated with statistically significant QALY gain (incremental QALYs 0.064, 95% CI 0.002, 0.127) compared to placebo. Simvastatin was also less costly (incremental total costs –£3601, 95% CI –8061, 859). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY the probability of simvastatin being cost-effective was 99%. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust to changes in methodological assumptions with the probability of cost-effectiveness never dropping below 90%. Conclusion: Simvastatin was found to be cost-effective for the treatment of ARDS, being associated with both a significant QALY gain and a cost saving. There was no significant reduction in mortality at 12 months

Using Football Cultures as a Vehicle to Improve Mental Health in Men: The Case of the Redcar and Cleveland Boot Room

This paper sets out to appraise (from the perspective of members) the impact of a localized, football-based mental health intervention. Commissioned in late 2015, the ‘Redcar and Cleveland Boot Room (BR)’ was implemented in response to mass redundancy in the local area, coupled with regional suicide rates in men that exceed the national average. Interactive discussions with BR members revealed that: (a) the language of football and shared identity were important for initiating and sustaining engagement in the BR; (b) peer-support and mentoring combined with member-led activities were active ingredients of the BR and (c) that the BR was an effective vehicle for building mental health resilience. This evaluation adds to the evidence base on the value of football as a context to engage adult males in community-based interventions targeting mental health resilience